The 10 Commandments of Wiley

Let's face it, this is nothing short of biblical.

Right now, the Marlins starting staff is churning out impressive outing after impressive outing. It may not be the kind of starts that will get on ESPN - a rare feat for the Fish to get on ESPN to begin with - but they are the kind of starts a winning ballclub needs.

Who is most responsible? Not to be overlooked should be Mark Wiley, the Marlins pitching guru. He stopped being a coach and went straight to guru status once Andrew Miller started throwing strikes.

Now, let's not downplay the talent on this starting staff. But let's not play it up either. Mark Hendrickson was valued as a middle relief/long relief pitcher and signed with Florida because he had the opportunity to start. He was named their opening day starter and everyone practically laughed. Scott Olsen had a ton of question marks, most notably is he mature enough to play in this league and be a productive professional? Andrew Miller, despite his high draft pick, has been knocked for not having good control. Burke Badenhop was practically a throw-in, the kind though that the Marlins tend to make a killing on with other teams. Ricky Nolasco, in 2006, was looking very promising but until recently hasn't produced much for the Marlins as a starter.

All this has changed and the Marlins are on a 7 game winning streak. Their staff ERA, over the last 7 days, is 1.67. That isn't just the starters, but the entire staff. To start the season, it was clear the bullpen was going to do a lot of cleaning up. Yet, the starters had 3 new starters in their rotation (Hendrickson, Vandenhurk, Miller). Vandenhurk was sent down in favor of Badenhop, but all that has happened since is each starter has become more consistent. What is the secret? Wiley's 10 commandments - because although we have joked that on the 7th day God created Mark Wiley, and some have joked the other way around, there is something miraculous going on here.

1. Thou shall poundeth the strike zone
   The starters' strike percentage has risen to 63.2% which means they are less likely to be behind in the count - see commandment #4.
   
2. Thou shall quicken thy pace
   Olsen has been quoted as saying what has helped him has been picking up the pace. Miller did the same once he was struggling at the beginning of the season and it helped him keep his velocity up as well as stay focused.
   
3. Thou shall have great command
   Locating your pitches is more important than the velocity of those pitches according to Wiley. In fact, it is more about having command of your pitches. Just ask any pitcher that has ever been successful like Greg Maddux.
   
4. Thou shall not get behind in the count
   When pitchers fall behind in the count, they become easier for hitters to predict which means more likely to get blasted. Control your pitches, control the count, control the hitters.
   
5. Thou shall trust your defense
   The Marlins defense is not among the best, but they are capable and are improving. One example is their timely double plays, which have saved them in past starts. They are middle of the pack for DPs based on total chances (1368) and the total dps (31) resulting in 2.2 percent (league best is 3.2%).
   
6. Thou shall not walk batters
   Only 20 BBs in 54.0 IP. That is showing a big sign of improvement.
   
7. Thou shall work on you defense
   The starters are also very good athletes and can field the ball. This will help their own cause and something the Marlins starters - and relievers - have become more known for.
   
8. Thou shall trust your pitches
   Andrew Miller had to trust in his changeup. Ricky Nolasco has a nasty curve, but wasn't throwing it for strikes. When both started to trust their pitches, better results came - and it was predicated on having good command, #3 on Wiley's list.
   
9. Thou shall trust in your bullpen
   The bullpen is deep and has been a source of strength dating back to last season. When the starters struggled to start the season, it was the bullpen that bailed them out. And if things get too hectic out there, the bullpen can come in and slam the door. This is an extra source of confidence that should allow the starters to go out and be aggressive as their bullpen will be able to pick them up but so can their offense.
   
10. Thou shall have no other coaches besides Mark Wiley
    This needs no explanation, Marlin fans. Ever since Wiley left, and we were replaced by Kranitz, we had a string of success followed by injury and inconsitency. Dontrelle Willis was vaulted into Cy Young contention under Wiley's tutelage.
    

Marlins Starters Showing Signs of Progress

Prepare to be shocked.

Over the last 5 starts, the Marlins not only have won games but their starting pitching has been phenomenal. In turn, this has enabled the bullpen to solidify and get back to normal. Look at the numbers, it is quite encouraging and if the Marlins staff can keep this up, who knows how far this team can go. It is clear that Mark Wiley's tutelage is paying off, after all he almost single-handedly turned Dontrelle Willis into a Cy Young candidate.

Today Miller will take the mound and go for another quality start and if he can do that we may have more than just an anomaly but an actual trend. Nolasco finally pitched the way we come to expect and this may be a momentum builder for him.

This team's pitching is coming along at just the right time. Look at the following table and be shocked to learn who has the 2nd lowest ERA over this span.

If you wish to see the entire stat page breakdown, click here.

Also notice the strike percentages. The pitchers are all in that 60% range and one of the basic tenants of Wiley's is to throw strikes.

Nolasco Still Struggles

According to scouts, Ricky Nolasco is hitting the numbers on the radar gun that are impressive. Several times he hit the 95 mark on the gun with his fastball, and his curve was maintaining good velocity in the mid 80's. Yet in 4.2 innings last night, he gave up 10 hits and 6 earned runs.

The problem is his location. He has the stuff, but he is not making his pitches. One noticeable trait is his curveball which was breaking pretty hard last night, but it wasn't making it for strikes. It broke too much.

Ironically, Nolasco was a bit more wild in his last appearance, his first win of the season, in Milwaukee. He walked 4 batters in 5 innings pitched. Last night, he only walked 2.

Right now, Nolasco is too inconsistent to really be looked at as a starter. Yet, the Marlins have little answers due to all the injuries to the starting rotation over the last season. Unless the Marlins are going to call up Chris Volstad or some other minor league prospect but they face getting more of the same from Andrew Miller or Burke Badenhop. Perhaps sliding Doug Waechter into the rotation may help.

The Marlins are obviously desperate for some quality starts. Nolasco does not seem ready to give them that.

Injuries Offer More Optimism for Marlins

When Josh Johnson went down and under the knife with Tommy John surgery, the Marlins were most obviously losing out on a valuable prospect. He had finished the 2006 season with 24 games started, 157 innings pitched, and a 12-7 record. He definitely was maturing as a pitcher and ready to take a step forward in 2007.

But the Marlins suffered another major blow in 2007 - they lost another Rookie of the Year candidate in Anibal Sanchez to shoulder surgery. Winning 10 of the 17 games he started - throwing a no-hitter along the way - the Marlins had placed great expectations on the young Venezuelan right hander.

Both are likely to be returning this season. How big of a lift would that be for this team, which is currently 14-9 and in first place?

He sports a goatee and whip-like hair, but that isn't the only thing that distinguished Sergio Mitre on this young Marlins staff: his high ERA helps. But Mitre has proven himself to be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher at times and has helped the Marlins lineup wins. He was 5-8 last season in 27 starts and 149IP, sometimes not getting the run support he needed when he did pitch well. Yet he made some strides, he was able to increase his strikeout ratio and decrease his walk/strikeout ratio as well once he became a regular starter. And it looks like he will return in June. Mitre, placed on the 60 day DL on April 18th because of a right forearm strain, has been resting his arm on a no-throw diet.

Getting these pitchers back only supplements the Marlins pitching staff and will help push them further along towards possibly shocking baseball - again.

They stand to get Mitre back in June and Sanchez, possibly, not far behind him. Then Josh Johnson is looking for a September return. Add these three to the possibility of a Chris Volstad callup and the Marlins are sitting very snuggly at the table with the other contenders in the bigs.

Starting Rotation Will Challenge Marlins

The success of this team is not going to be based on its offense, its defense or even, for a change, its bullpen. It will be based on how consistent their starting pitching can be.

This season, like last season, the Marlins are starting out short-handed as most of their rotation is out with injuries. Sergio Mitre is out with a strained forearm, Anibal Sanchez has undergone shoulder surgery while Josh Johnson, arguably the staff ace, had Tommy John surgery.

The new rotation for this season is going to be free agent Mark Hendrickson, followed by Rick Vandenhurk, Andrew Miller, Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco.

Last season, the Marlins were hard pressed to get into the 7th inning with any starter not named Dontrelle Willis: and even the now-departed D-Train had his struggles.

The starting five is not going to turn heads with name dropping. Unless you're a die hard baseball fan and you probably won't recognize the names of Mark Hendrickson or Andrew Miller. Rick Vandenhurk might only be recognized by his native Netherlands and the few dedicated Marlin fans here at MarlinsNation.

One of the more established members of this staff is now Scott Olsen. Olsen has had success and is no longer considered a prospect. He was 12-10 in 2006 with 166 Ks in 180.2 IP with a 4.04 ERA. Yet last season, he regressed a bit. His walks went up (85BBs) while his Ks and his IP went down (133Ks in 176.2 IP). His ERA also shot up to 5.81.

Olsen also had some off the field problems that only contributed to his rough season last year. Hope is renewed and the Marlins are expecting him to take another step forward this season and get back on track to being the promising lefty he was shaping up to be after the 2006 season. Another benefit for Olsen could be the return of Mark Wiley, the Marlins pitching guru that was dismissed a few seasons ago in favor of Rick Kranitz when Joe Girardi was hired as the Marlins manager. Wiley helped Dontrelle Willis get back on track a few seasons back and is being expected to do the same with this young staff.

Andrew Miller has a lot to prove as a highly-touted pitching prospect coming out of the Tigers' system. The stakes are raised a bit more as he is one of the two main assets the Marlins received in exchange for Willis and Miguel Cabrera. He seems to have control problems and the Marlins main focus this season, with the return of Wiley, is to throw strikes.

If Miller falters, there is always Gaby Hernandez and Chris Volstad waiting to step in and give it a go.

Yet the challenge will be getting consistency out of the starters this season. The bullpen was very much improved but also a bit overworked last season. With consistency, the Marlins pitching can remain in their usual roles which could lead to more wins. But will it be enough to improve on a 71-91 season of a year ago?

Julio Traded for Kim

Proof there is a God, and He's a Marlin fan

On Sunday, the Marlins somehow convinced the Rockies that Jorge Julio was more valuable than Byung Hyun Kim. Kim has been injured all season; Julio would have been better off on the DL.

Now, Julio will take his 12.54 ERA to Colorado where he figures to turn things around. "I'm fine. I stayed in focus all the time," said Julio. "I know this game. I know baseball here. It's work, and this is my job. Wherever I go, I want to do my job."

Good luck with that, Julio. And now the Marlins will turn to another arm they have long been interested in, Kim.

His versatility figures to help the Marlins and make an immediate impact. The plan is to use him as a starter to solidify the beaten-up rotation. When Josh Johnson comes back, Kim could slide into the bullpen, but the Marlins caution they do not envision him as a closer. (Good thing because Kim doesn't have much success in the clutch moments as a closer - as we all know.)

This is a good move for the Marlins simply because they trade Julio's contract for Kim's, which is basically the same contract (both getting $2.5M and are free agents at season's end). And anything would be better than Julio.

Further Reading:
Joe Frisaro of MLB.com

Marlins' Pitching Has Wins Walking Away

The talent is there, but the execution simply is not. The Marlins starters last season put on quite a show, grabbing double digit wins for all 5 starters - 4 of them being rookies.

Yet, this season is off to a rocky start. Don't think so? Sure, the Marlins are 6-6 and some of those losses could easily be wins if not for dodgey reliever, Jorge Julio. Still, take a look at some of the stats put together by our own MarlinAddict:

           Pitches  Strikes  %Strike  BB
Sanchez      108       54     51%      6
Lindstrom     28       15     54%      2
Pinto          4        2     50%      0
Messenger     16       10     63%      0
Gregg         26       14     54%      2
  Totals     182       95     52%      8

Those stats are from last night's starters against the Astros. You can't expect to beat very many teams by throwing only 52% of your pitches for strikes.

Of course, giving a hitter another chance like the Marlins did to Ensberg last night didn't help either.

Three of our pitchers have WHIPs over 1.8 (Sanchez, Olsen, Mitre). The Marlins are last in the league with a 1.62 WHIP as a team. It comes down to throwing strikes and having better command of your pitches. The most obvious case is Jorge Julio, who is all but unserviceable these days. Rick Kranitz is stressing, for example, that Olsen use his fastball more in the early part of the game and to just go after hitters.

Kranitz, credited for a lot of the success for the young staff last season, has his work cut out for him this season. He has to teach the pitchers to overcome bad habits and help guide them into growing as professionals. Right now, simply throwing strikes is hurting the Marlins chances to win games.

Garcia Down; Petit In as 5th Starter?

Jose Garcia, trying to grab the 5th spot in the rotation with the injury to Josh Johnson, has become injured himself. His right elbow, his throwing arm, has swollen and he is slated for some light throwing on Monday.

He isn't sure he will make it through that.

MRI tests have revealed no structural damage, just some inflammation. That isn't expected to keep Garcia out too long, but it may already be too late. Yusmeiro Petit may have already taken the spot.

Petit has 8 Ks and 0 BBs through 7.2 innings pitched. He has given up 12 hits and 6 ERs, but his ability to locate his pitches and do it consistently may be what seperates him from the rest of the Marlin candidates.

That and just being healthy.

Garcia is looking to lose some time, while Mitre is just getting back - Sergio Mitre had a pretty solid performance today against the Mets in Port Saint Lucie, striking out 2 in 2.1 innings while walking 1 and allowing 1 hit.