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Saturday, March 31, 2007

Stokes Dealt to A's; Marlins Catch Baker

Longtime Marlins power prospect Jason Stokes will finally get a good shot at making the big club - albeit with a different club.

The Marlins dealt Jason Stokes on Friday to the Oakland A's for John Baker, another AAA prospect from the PCL.

Baker played 83 games for the Sacramento River Cats in the PCL last season, the A's AAA affiliate. He hit .273 with 4 home runs, 80 hits and 38 RBI. He also had 77 strikeouts in 293 at bats while walking 44 times. Baker is 26 with a lefty bat.

After struggling in 2005 at the AAA level, hitting .234, he bounced back with his performance last season and also was named to the PCL All-Star team. He noted working with hitting coach Brian McArn as they both created a routine for Baker and kept it the same day in and day out. Baker noted that he may have been "over-adjusting" with his hitting approach and that by creating a routine and keeping things basically the same, it brought him back to where he was.

The Marlins do not have a lot of depth at catcher, and if Baker could show some promise, he should get a call-up with the Marlins at some point in the season.

As for Stokes, he will go to Oakland and most likely work on his hitting. His power is still there, despite problems with his wrist, and playing in the AL could get warrant him a better shot as a DH.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Why Jorge Julio Could Succeed As a Marlin

Or, How I Learned to Stop Doubting Larry Beinfest and Love the Roster

Some of you will probably doubt this most recent move, of trading away a talented prospect in Yusmeiro Petit for a veteran closer in Jorge Julio. A veteran at the ripe old age of 28.

Well, grow up. Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be one of the shrewdest GM's in the game and his scouting staff and assistants and front office personnel - yeah, even the intern who gets everyone coffee! - have proven themselves to be just that much smarter than the rest of MLB. See 2003, 2004, 2005 and even the "fire sale"-d team of 2006. Each year the Marlins have been in serious contention for the postseason.

Whew. Ok, let's continue.

So, why is this latest move any different?

Well, looking at the spring numbers for Julio, there is reason to cringe. But since when have spring training numbers EVER serve as an accurate barometer of regular season success? Huh, Abe Nunez?

I must confess - I was on board for the Abraham "Five Tool" Nunez movement for our CF of the future. You bet. Hey, I can't always be right, right?

Then again, I wasn't thrilled at reports of us looking at Julio either as our stop-gap measure for closer. Yet, I grew into it.

So, why and how did I come to this conclusion, that Jorge Julio is going to be the answer for the Marlins closing woes this year? Simple - In Larry Beinfest I trust.

There seems to be a template here in place, a formula that is almost can't fail. For the Marlins closer candidate, it goes like this:

  1. Must have expiring/one year deal
  2. Must be undervalued
  3. Must have prior experience

If Beinfest can find a guy that matches those criteria, he has found himself a match and almost without fail, a gem. Need proof?
  • 2003 Ugueth Urbina
  • 2004 Armando Benitez
  • 2005 Todd Jones
  • 2006 Joe Borowski
And now, for 2007, Jorge Julio.

You see, all the names listed here fit into this formula - all have criterium 1 in place, all have been undervalued at the time they were acquired (and another way to cite their value is who/what it took to acquire them), and they obviously all had experience.

What is amazing to me is that the Marlins seem to be able to keep finding these guys. Once they land here in Miami, they all of a sudden turn to gold and go on to get big deals elsewhere. Then Beinfest reloads.

So, one reason to have hope with Julio is that he fits into this formula, this template that Beinfest seems to like in assessing who is available. The other thing to consider is that those three criteria work.
  1. An expiring or one year deal is a "walk year". Anyone notice how mysteriously players are more motivated going into their free agency year and tend to have a "career year"? Well, it is all in order to get that big, fat paycheck - right Mr. Beltran? Jorge is in the final year of his deal - and will be looking to impress as he wants to end up with at least 200 saves - and he is only at 99 right now.
  2. Julio was very much undervalued. The DBacks are committed to Jose Valverde as their closer and seem to not have a place for Julio - which is why the DBacks were shopping him. Trading him for Petit may seem costly, but the Marlins are so stacked in starting pitching talent that they don't notice. Sometimes, they lose guys on those long bus rides in the minors and don't even notice for weeks.
  3. Julio was the closer for the Orioles, which would argue against much "experience" but he does have 99 saves over the course of his career (in 124 save opportunities, which puts him at .798 % - for comparison, Mariano Rivera has a .898 %) and has topped over 20 three times in his 6 year career.
In other words, if Beinfest likes him, and it isn't costing us too much in the acquisition cost or even having him on payroll ($2.1M), I don't really see the downside.

The other positive is that this solidifies the bullpen and the roles of the young guys in there. It shortens the game by forcing us to really find consistency for innings 7 and 8 as well - and with the talent the Marlins have added, they should be able to meet this objective much more quickly and more often than they did last season.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Fan Favorite Wood Makes Roster

Jason Wood, best known for his game winning pinch hit single in the final game against Philly, is now a member of the parent club's roster at the young age of 37. 'Bout time because this guy has hung with it and shown that he can flat-out hit.

Right-Said-Fredi, as I like to call him (not to his face, obviously!), really likes Wood's compact swing and also visualizes the minor league vet as a pinch hitting option off the bench. Hitting .415 will get you to turn some heads.

Another journeyman, Lee Gardner, has also earned his way onto the opening day roster while posting a flawless 13.1 IP, with no earned runs and a 2-0 record.

Also being classified as "shocking" news, the Marlins have announced that de Aza will be their opening day centerfielder. The 22 year old will get a chance to start his big league career as a rookie this season, but let's hope he is not another Scott Pose and the comparisons to Juan Pierre are warranted. He looked very sharp this spring hitting .364, the second highest average on the team (behind Wood), and only getting K'd 5 times in 44 ABs while scoring 8 runs, stealing 4 bases (out of 6) and amassing an OBP of .383. He was easily the best looking CFer in camp for the Marlins with the most upside.

Ex-Marlin Urbina Sentenced to 14 Years in Jail

From news about a new closer to news about an old closer - this time, it's very dark.

Ugueth Urbina, known for his cardiac-like saves during the 2003 season for the Marlins (acquired from the Rangers for prospect Adrian Gonzalez) and his postgame kisses with Pudge Rodriguez, will now be known for being locked up.

Reports from Venezuela are that Urbina was involved in a group that attacked 5 workers on Urbina's family ranch and attempted to kill them. The group attacked the workers with machetes on Oct. 16, 2005 - of which Urbina had denied being a part of. Urbina claimed to be asleep when the attacked happened.

Despite the plea, the court ruled that Urbina is to go behind bars for 14 years. From the bullpen to the pen.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Marlins Land Jorge Julio

"With me and Julio down by the schoolyard..."

I never understood that song, but it does provide a good sound bite. Kind of like this latest move where the Marlins acquired Jorge Julio from the Diamondbacks for Yusmeiro Petit.

In one move, the Marlins solve the problem of their bullpen by adding an experienced closer and also solidify their starting rotation.

Julio immediately becomes the closer, and with 99 career saves he has 95 more than the other Marlin candidates for the position (Tankersley has 3, Lindstrom has 0 and Gregg has 1). He also has 345Ks in 357.2IP along with a 4.20 ERA.

This also congeals the bullpen, as now the candidates to close are going to be in set-up roles, and the Marlins can take their time and see what each guy can do in certain situations. Julio has one year left on his contract, and the Marlins could be in a position to groom their next closer this season.

As for the rotation, Sergio Mitre now takes over as the #5 starter as the season breaks while Yusmeiro Petit, the other candidate, is now shipped off to Arizona. Petit had started turning heads this spring, but has struggled of late - the Marlins are not sure what to expect from the prospect. As for Mitre, he has been able to put together some very good outings and has been getting sharper with each time out.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Hill will be missed

Under Perry Hill, there have been many gold gloves. Orlando Cabrera in 2001, Luis Castillo grabbed three from 2003-2005, Derek Lee recieved his first in 2003 under Hill's guidance and Mike Lowell recieved his first in 2005.

Even more impressive was how he handled last season's staff of rookies, which posted the third best fielding percentage in team history at .983. The best ever was .987 in 2003, on their way to the franchise's second world title.

You can bet Perry Hill will be missed.

He came over as a member of the Expos and Torborg's staff when Jeffrey Loria took over as Marlins owner. He was immediately hailed by the Marlins players who were already gifted fielders but where made even better by Hill's tutelage. Mike Lowell, Derek Lee, Luis Castillo, and even Alex Gonzalez - who didn't get a gold glove but was in contention each season with his slick fielding - all of them praised Hill for his ability to push them and improve them each season.

On the positive side, Hill is retiring and will spend time with his family. Also, his stamp on the Marlins instructional program will remain in-tact, as his teachings have filtered their way down the system. Also, new hire Andy Fox, the former Marlins utility man, worked with Hill for two seasons and will build upon Hill's program.

Still, Perry Hill will be missed. He has been through a lot with the Marlins, and each year he dedicated himself to being the top instructor in his field.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Marlins Update 3.23.07

The Marlins defeated the Cards yesterday 2-1. The biggest news being LaRussa's arrest the night before and his subsequent apology. That aside, the Marlins have some promising developments coming out of that win.

Dontrelle Willis is going to be the Opening Day starter and he showed why going 6.2 innings of shutout baseball against the World Champs. He struck out 5, allowed 3 hits and 2 BBs. Not a bad way to get tuned up for the coming season.

Also, de Aza continues to surprise. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI while setting the table for the Marlins lineup. He is batting .387 on the year.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Fish Eye On: Alejandro de Aza

Like most Marlin fans, you might be scratching your head (or wearing a paper bag) over what the Marlins are going to do about their center field needs. Clearly we have to field 9 players - I know some of you, like me, are asking do we really have to play 9 players?

Um yeah, we do.

So, with that positive attitude and in the spirit of confusion that can only be replicated by a coyote on PCP and you wearing a steak t-shirt, who the h*ll is Alejandro de Aza?

Well, he is quietly becoming quite a prospect for the Marlins, and at just the right time.

He was acquired in the rule 5 draft from the Dodgers back in 2004. He is 22 and is an athletic and speedy fielder with a quick bat. He plates from the left side and throws lefty as well. If he seems eerily familiar it is because he might remind you of another speedy, lefty CFer from days of yore - Juan Pierre.

The speedy Dominican stole 27 bases out of 37 attempts last season at AA Carolina. He also batted a solid .278 with a .346 OBP. He strikes out some with 64 hits in 230 ABs, but also K'ing 46 times.

Yet, despite was seems like average stats, de Aza is turning heads and making an impression.

"It seems like good things happen when he gets in the game," Fredi Gonzalez said.

Don't expect de Aza to make the Marlins out of camp. The CF spot is being tightly contested, and both Reed and Abercrombie are staking claims as are Amezaga and newly acquired Alex Sanchez. Cody Ross and Joe Borchard also remain options, too. But if he keeps performing like he is in spring training, 6 for 18 with 3 stolen bases, it might not be long until we see de Aza running around the base paths for the Marlins.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Garcia Down; Petit In as 5th Starter?

Jose Garcia, trying to grab the 5th spot in the rotation with the injury to Josh Johnson, has become injured himself. His right elbow, his throwing arm, has swollen and he is slated for some light throwing on Monday.

He isn't sure he will make it through that.

MRI tests have revealed no structural damage, just some inflammation. That isn't expected to keep Garcia out too long, but it may already be too late. Yusmeiro Petit may have already taken the spot.

Petit has 8 Ks and 0 BBs through 7.2 innings pitched. He has given up 12 hits and 6 ERs, but his ability to locate his pitches and do it consistently may be what seperates him from the rest of the Marlin candidates.

That and just being healthy.

Garcia is looking to lose some time, while Mitre is just getting back - Sergio Mitre had a pretty solid performance today against the Mets in Port Saint Lucie, striking out 2 in 2.1 innings while walking 1 and allowing 1 hit.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Josh Johnson Shut Down; Who Will Replace JJ?

Josh Johnson has had to shut it down here early on in Spring Training due to some nerve damage in his throwing arm, around the elbow and biceps area. Tests run on Friday were not able to conclude what exactly is wrong with his arm, but further tests are scheduled.

So, it is not known how long Josh Johnson will be out, but the Marlins are already preparing to go forward without him in the rotation in the meantime. Who are those candidates that will contend for a spot in the rotation? We have the answers: Jose Garcia, Kevin Gregg, Sergio Mitre, Yusmeiro Petit and Wes Obermueller, a non roster invitee.

Wes Obermueller

Obermueller is a guy who has talent, but has bounced around the league a bit. Drafted by the Royals, he became a starter in Milwaukee for a period of time, then was traded to the Braves for Dan Kolb in the winter of 2005. The Braves gave him a shot coming into Spring Training in 2006, but he ended up staying in the minor leagues and eventually was released.

The Braves did seem to have high hopes for the then-29 year old, "He has outstanding stuff," Bobby Cox said. "He's around the plate, and he's not wild. Our scouts liked him, and you can see why." In Milwaukee, Obermueller bounced from starter to reliever, and the lack of consistency may have worn on his game.

Yet now he gets another fresh start with the Marlins. Obermueller has a live fastball, clocked in the low to mid 90's and a slider.

Kevin Gregg

Kevin Gregg, most notable as the newly acquired Marlin who took his new team to arbitration, is also getting a chance to start fresh. For the Angels, he was mostly a long reliever, making 29 appearances with a 2-3 record and a 3.45 ERA. He also struck out 7 Yankees in one appearance, which was the most by an Angel reliever all season long. He did make three starts and went 1-1 with a 6.89 ERA.

Gregg was obtained in a trade with the Angels for Chris Resop, and is a favorite to land in the bullpen and possibly even grab the closer's role. In fact, due to the depth of the Angel's bullpen, Gregg became available. Still, he has more experience starting games than he does closing them - and the Marlins may opt to go with a more known quantity in that regard.

Gregg has a live fastball, clocked at around 91-94, and mixes in a slider. He credits some of his success with working with that Angel's bullpen and observing how those relievers tended to believe in their stuff and keep hitters off balance. It remains to be seen if the Marlins keep him in the pen or push him out as a starter to begin the season.

Yusmeiro Petit

Yusmeiro Petit came over last season from the Mets as a potential starter, and hasn't really blossomed as much as the Marlins had hoped. Petit spent most of last season at AAA Alburquerque working as a starter and logged a 4-6 record with a 4.28 ERA - a respectable ERA considering he pitched in the PCL which is usually a hitter's paradise.

Petit is getting a longer look this season mostly because of Johnson's injury, but the starter has some potential. In 2004, he was ranked one of the top 50 prospects in baseball by Minor League News (which ranked him #33) and was quickly becoming a sensation within the Mets organization. He has excellent control, but is not overpowering. Yet, unlike most control pitchers, he has an ability to strike out batters and even as a pro last season, he had 20 strike outs in 26.1 IP while only allowing 9 walks.

Sergio Mitre

Sergio Mitre was brought over from the Cubs last season as a part of that Juan Pierre deal. He quickly grabbed a spot in the rotation, probably due in part to familiarity with Rich Kranitz - the Marlins new pitching coach and former Cubs minor league pitching coach. Yet an injury pushed Mitre to the DL and left him there for most of the season. Much to his horror, the Marlins starting staff never missed him and seemed to soar in his absence.

This has made Mitre quite a polarizing figure among the Marlins' congnoscenti. His stats at the end of the season were not attractive, yet they did not tell the whole story. Mitre emerged at the start of the season as one of the most consistent starters for the Fish, even more so than Dontrelle Willis who, at that time, was suffering some kind of hangover from the WBC.

Mitre is back, but the Marlins are still taking it very slow with him and his shoulder. Keep an eye on him as Spring Training continues, he has pretty solid stuff and just needs to keep his pitches down. At times last season, he seemed to be committing the cardinal sin of letting the ball stay up in the zone and some suspect that his shoulder problems were not as serious as they seemed and that is why he was left on the shelf for so long.

Jose Garcia

Jose Garcia has one thing scouts don't like - he is under 6' tall. A typical prospect for a starter is usually going to be over the 6 foot mark and will garner more attention, yet even that has not kept eyes off of Garcia. The "diminutive" Dominican has electric stuff, striking out batters at every level of play.

He racked 87 strikeouts in 84.7 IP for AA Carolina while walking 25 batters. In total last season, he amassed a 12-10 record with a 2.88 ERA, giving up 143 hits and getting 161/45 K/BB in 165.2 innings. Garcia got called up and made a couple of appearances, striking out 8 in 11IP coming out of the pen with the Marlins last season.

This kid has the most upside in the group. He has a live fastball and can get you out so many ways. His velocity is deceptive due in part to his stature and his delivery.

From these five players, the Marlins are looking for a candidate to fill out the starting rotation and hold it down while Josh Johnson is out. Most likely, the Marlin selected will slide down into the #5 spot, rounding out Fredi Gonzalez's rotation.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Tank Shut Down: For Now

Taylor Tankersley, the Marlins top lefty specialist out of the pen, is going to be taking it easy in Spring Training -- due to inflammation in his left shoulder.

The prognosis is simply rest. For the next 7-10 days, he will not be allowed to pick up a ball, but will instead focus on allowing the shoulder to heal.

He suffered a similar set back in 2005, where he missed the first two months due to inflammation. The Marlins chose to err on the side of caution with their newly drafted prospect.

Fredi Gonzalez has mentioned the possibility of going with an extended spring training scenario, where the lefty will get some innings at the end of spring training and be used sparingly, and not on back to back nights, to start the season.

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