Marlins Dead in the Water?

Seems like it is over too quickly for the Marlins this season.

Suffering injuries to 3/5ths of their stellar starting staff from last season hasn't been kind either. Then again, neither has this coaching staff.

Incidentally, they may all get an incomplete considering the injuries to this team but make no mistake, the Marlins have taken a big step backwards this season. There was a lot of hope and expectation for this young team coming into the season, building on the rookie seasons of Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs and even Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco. Olsen has turned into a headcase; Jacobs, Johnson, Sanchez and Nolasco have all been injured while only Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla have been able to consistently get into the starting lineup each day.

And it shows.

On top of this struggle, the Marlins made changes to their coaching staff and it doesn't seem to have paid off at all. Girardi left, mostly because he blew out the starters and didn't play the right personnel - and the fruits of that destruction have come to bear as we see Josh Johnson is now out for the rest of this season and possibly next. Yet the hiring of Fredi Gonzalez, met with some fanfare since he is a local kid, has turned out to be a quagmire.

Gonzalez has yet to show any kind of leadership abilities, instead deferring mostly to bench coach Carlos Tosca. The lack of direction shows on the field as these young players tend to go up and down like elevators but never seem to find ways to get out of funks or focus on being professionals day to day. That is not to say that the Marlins have huge problems with their personnel, yet only to say that the challenge of great players is their potential and developing it to its fullest. Miguel Cabrera was battling a big weight issue and the Marlins seemed to lack any courage in addressing it and challenging Cabrera. Dan Uggla went through a big slump and very little got better for him as did Jeremy Hermida. These young players need to have a plan in order to get out these slumps or spells where they just play bad and the Marlins staff seems to side-step the opportunity to hold them accountable as professionals.

It just seems that there is too much focus on personal feelings with this group and a fear to do what is necessary to win.

Say what we want about Girardi, but his crew cut no-nonsense approach made him the focus of the team from the players and no one questioned who was in charge in that dugout. In fact, that may have been what got him fired in the end - he couldn't stop himself. Fredi seems to be the opposite - he doesn't know where he should begin.

As a result, the Marlins have performed worse despite their strong offensive numbers and their talent. Mistakes like letting Armando Benitez even set foot on the field continue, while former problems - Randy Messenger and Jorge Julio, for example - continue to improve.

Byung-Hyun Kim was a shrewd move for Julio, but now he has been placed on waivers and picked up by Arizona. A payroll move and a signal that the Marlins brass is waiving the white flag for the remainder of this season. They might as well get rid of the coaching staff too since they have seemed to all but run the Marlins into the ground now.

There is little to watch for right now other than the development of young talents like Jeremy Hermida and Rick Vanden Hurk. Of course Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez are having fine seasons and are worth the price of the ticket alone to watch each night. In fact, that is the problem - these young guys have talent and deserve to put it on display and win. For some reason, it isn't working out right now.

Julio Traded for Kim

Proof there is a God, and He's a Marlin fan

On Sunday, the Marlins somehow convinced the Rockies that Jorge Julio was more valuable than Byung Hyun Kim. Kim has been injured all season; Julio would have been better off on the DL.

Now, Julio will take his 12.54 ERA to Colorado where he figures to turn things around. "I'm fine. I stayed in focus all the time," said Julio. "I know this game. I know baseball here. It's work, and this is my job. Wherever I go, I want to do my job."

Good luck with that, Julio. And now the Marlins will turn to another arm they have long been interested in, Kim.

His versatility figures to help the Marlins and make an immediate impact. The plan is to use him as a starter to solidify the beaten-up rotation. When Josh Johnson comes back, Kim could slide into the bullpen, but the Marlins caution they do not envision him as a closer. (Good thing because Kim doesn't have much success in the clutch moments as a closer - as we all know.)

This is a good move for the Marlins simply because they trade Julio's contract for Kim's, which is basically the same contract (both getting $2.5M and are free agents at season's end). And anything would be better than Julio.

Further Reading:
Joe Frisaro of MLB.com

Marlins' Pitching Has Wins Walking Away

The talent is there, but the execution simply is not. The Marlins starters last season put on quite a show, grabbing double digit wins for all 5 starters - 4 of them being rookies.

Yet, this season is off to a rocky start. Don't think so? Sure, the Marlins are 6-6 and some of those losses could easily be wins if not for dodgey reliever, Jorge Julio. Still, take a look at some of the stats put together by our own MarlinAddict:

           Pitches  Strikes  %Strike  BB
Sanchez      108       54     51%      6
Lindstrom     28       15     54%      2
Pinto          4        2     50%      0
Messenger     16       10     63%      0
Gregg         26       14     54%      2
  Totals     182       95     52%      8

Those stats are from last night's starters against the Astros. You can't expect to beat very many teams by throwing only 52% of your pitches for strikes.

Of course, giving a hitter another chance like the Marlins did to Ensberg last night didn't help either.

Three of our pitchers have WHIPs over 1.8 (Sanchez, Olsen, Mitre). The Marlins are last in the league with a 1.62 WHIP as a team. It comes down to throwing strikes and having better command of your pitches. The most obvious case is Jorge Julio, who is all but unserviceable these days. Rick Kranitz is stressing, for example, that Olsen use his fastball more in the early part of the game and to just go after hitters.

Kranitz, credited for a lot of the success for the young staff last season, has his work cut out for him this season. He has to teach the pitchers to overcome bad habits and help guide them into growing as professionals. Right now, simply throwing strikes is hurting the Marlins chances to win games.

Right Said Fredi Needs to Say No to Julio

Just say no.

That is what Fredi Gonzalez is faced with as his first major obstacle as manager comes to bear upon him. And that "no" is not only directed at Jorge Julio's ego but also towards Larry Beinfest, the man who hired Gonzalez.

In this instance one can ask, would Girardi keep rolling Julio out there when it is evident that this guy can't find the plate with a GPS locator?

Julio, to give illustration to this point, has thrown 112 pitches in the 3.2 innings he has pitched this season. That is 5.6 pitches per plate appearance. Hitters are batting .769 against him and he has given up 10 hits, 6 earned runs, 4 doubles, and 6 walks. Oh yeah, and NO strike outs to go along with a blown save and pending the completion of last night's game, that could double.

Beinfest pulled the trigger on a deal that brought Julio to Miami for only Yusmeiro Petit, a solid pitching prospect who could prove to be a serviceable starter. The Marlins traded from a position of wealth, starting pitching, to shore up what looked like a big gaping hole to some - the closer's role.

Yet, what makes this deal even more redundant at the moment is that not only is Julio struggling with his control, but the Marlins have found a couple of options to end games with - Lee Gardner and Henry Owens. Both easily went out there and grabbed their first major league saves while Julio, who currently has 99 MLB saves, can't find his first one of the season and has had more opportunities. In fact, Gardner cleaned up Julio's mess - and Gonzalez made the call on that.

So, why continue?

The Marlins could realistically have only 1 loss right now if not for Julio's lack of control.

Fredi Gonzalez has to talk with his GM and basically come up with another option for Julio. He needs to be demoted to where he can work on his control, as it seems he is suffering from bad mechanics, at the very least, or possibly has just lost confidence in his fast ball. Whatever the case may be, the Marlins cannot afford to have him learn on the job - that isn't what they acquired him for. They traded for Julio to come in and close games and so far, he can't even close up one hitter.

Just say no, Fredi. Say no to Julio and say no to Beinfest. If this situation takes a turn for the worse, it will be on the field first and ultimately, that is how your performance will be determined. The Marlins couldn't fire two managers in a row.

Marlins 4-2, 2-0 on Season Series

The Marlins completed their home opening series against the Phillies with a 6-4 win over division rival Philadelphia.

Scott Olsen gets his 2nd win, and Mike Jacobs launched his 2nd home run of the season; both players helping the Marlins stake their claim as the new power in the NL East.

Ok, it's early, but there really isn't any reason to deny the possibility that the Marlins could take the division. In fact, any team you put forward for the division title has flaws, so why not the Marlins?

Interestingly, the reliever position has been the most beleaguered part of the team. Julio's blow up cost the Marlins the series sweep against the Nationals, while Nolasco's tune up on Friday pretty much cost the Marlins their home opener.

And Julio's latest implosion today against the Phillies is something to watch. Lee Gardner came in and cleaned up Julio's bases-loaded mess and got the first save for the team this season. "Wholio" still has yet to earn his first save for the Marlins. Yet, the reason why this situation will be something to watch is because Larry Beinfest brought Jorge Julio in to be the team's closer, costing the Marlins Yusmeiro Petit and some cash. If Julio's control continues to diminish, and his command on his pitches as well, the Marlins will be looking for another closer and it seems the answer, short term, is Lee Gardner. Let's hope this will not cause another rift in the organization between front office and management. Stay tuned.

Why Jorge Julio Could Succeed As a Marlin

Or, How I Learned to Stop Doubting Larry Beinfest and Love the Roster

Some of you will probably doubt this most recent move, of trading away a talented prospect in Yusmeiro Petit for a veteran closer in Jorge Julio. A veteran at the ripe old age of 28.

Well, grow up. Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be one of the shrewdest GM's in the game and his scouting staff and assistants and front office personnel - yeah, even the intern who gets everyone coffee! - have proven themselves to be just that much smarter than the rest of MLB. See 2003, 2004, 2005 and even the "fire sale"-d team of 2006. Each year the Marlins have been in serious contention for the postseason.

Whew. Ok, let's continue.

So, why is this latest move any different?

Well, looking at the spring numbers for Julio, there is reason to cringe. But since when have spring training numbers EVER serve as an accurate barometer of regular season success? Huh, Abe Nunez?

I must confess - I was on board for the Abraham "Five Tool" Nunez movement for our CF of the future. You bet. Hey, I can't always be right, right?

Then again, I wasn't thrilled at reports of us looking at Julio either as our stop-gap measure for closer. Yet, I grew into it.

So, why and how did I come to this conclusion, that Jorge Julio is going to be the answer for the Marlins closing woes this year? Simple - In Larry Beinfest I trust.

There seems to be a template here in place, a formula that is almost can't fail. For the Marlins closer candidate, it goes like this:

1. Must have expiring/one year deal
2. Must be undervalued
3. Must have prior experience

If Beinfest can find a guy that matches those criteria, he has found himself a match and almost without fail, a gem. Need proof?

• 2003 Ugueth Urbina
• 2004 Armando Benitez
• 2005 Todd Jones
• 2006 Joe Borowski

And now, for 2007, Jorge Julio.

You see, all the names listed here fit into this formula - all have criterium 1 in place, all have been undervalued at the time they were acquired (and another way to cite their value is who/what it took to acquire them), and they obviously all had experience.

What is amazing to me is that the Marlins seem to be able to keep finding these guys. Once they land here in Miami, they all of a sudden turn to gold and go on to get big deals elsewhere. Then Beinfest reloads.

So, one reason to have hope with Julio is that he fits into this formula, this template that Beinfest seems to like in assessing who is available. The other thing to consider is that those three criteria work.

1. An expiring or one year deal is a "walk year". Anyone notice how mysteriously players are more motivated going into their free agency year and tend to have a "career year"? Well, it is all in order to get that big, fat paycheck - right Mr. Beltran? Jorge is in the final year of his deal - and will be looking to impress as he wants to end up with at least 200 saves - and he is only at 99 right now.
2. Julio was very much undervalued. The DBacks are committed to Jose Valverde as their closer and seem to not have a place for Julio - which is why the DBacks were shopping him. Trading him for Petit may seem costly, but the Marlins are so stacked in starting pitching talent that they don't notice. Sometimes, they lose guys on those long bus rides in the minors and don't even notice for weeks.
3. Julio was the closer for the Orioles, which would argue against much "experience" but he does have 99 saves over the course of his career (in 124 save opportunities, which puts him at .798 % - for comparison, Mariano Rivera has a .898 %) and has topped over 20 three times in his 6 year career.

In other words, if Beinfest likes him, and it isn't costing us too much in the acquisition cost or even having him on payroll ($2.1M), I don't really see the downside.

The other positive is that this solidifies the bullpen and the roles of the young guys in there. It shortens the game by forcing us to really find consistency for innings 7 and 8 as well - and with the talent the Marlins have added, they should be able to meet this objective much more quickly and more often than they did last season.

Marlins Land Jorge Julio

"With me and Julio down by the schoolyard..."

I never understood that song, but it does provide a good sound bite. Kind of like this latest move where the Marlins acquired Jorge Julio from the Diamondbacks for Yusmeiro Petit.

In one move, the Marlins solve the problem of their bullpen by adding an experienced closer and also solidify their starting rotation.

Julio immediately becomes the closer, and with 99 career saves he has 95 more than the other Marlin candidates for the position (Tankersley has 3, Lindstrom has 0 and Gregg has 1). He also has 345Ks in 357.2IP along with a 4.20 ERA.

This also congeals the bullpen, as now the candidates to close are going to be in set-up roles, and the Marlins can take their time and see what each guy can do in certain situations. Julio has one year left on his contract, and the Marlins could be in a position to groom their next closer this season.

As for the rotation, Sergio Mitre now takes over as the #5 starter as the season breaks while Yusmeiro Petit, the other candidate, is now shipped off to Arizona. Petit had started turning heads this spring, but has struggled of late - the Marlins are not sure what to expect from the prospect. As for Mitre, he has been able to put together some very good outings and has been getting sharper with each time out.