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Friday, February 15, 2008

Dallas McPherson Beefs up 3rd Base Depth

With Miguel Cabrera being traded away, the biggest obstacle for the Marlins in the immediate future is trying to recover some of his production. There seems to be a plan in place.

Part I was signing veteran free agents that are undervalued that the Marlins felt could make an immediate contribution. Jorge Cantu and Jose Castillo were signed to give the Marlins some solid options. Cantu, of course, has some upside and could even play 1B or 2B. Castillo has been putting together very good numbers in the Venezuelan League this fall.

Part II must have been to target a young player that is somewhat ready but undervalued. The Marlins found that player in the once highly-touted Dallas McPherson, a product of the Angels system.

Recovering from back surgery which cost him all of the 2007 season, McPherson is looking to catch on with the Marlins and get a fresh start. Players will report February 21st and McPherson expects to immediately contend for the starting 3B spot.

Read more about McPherson's climb back with the Marlins.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Why Jorge Julio Could Succeed As a Marlin

Or, How I Learned to Stop Doubting Larry Beinfest and Love the Roster

Some of you will probably doubt this most recent move, of trading away a talented prospect in Yusmeiro Petit for a veteran closer in Jorge Julio. A veteran at the ripe old age of 28.

Well, grow up. Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be one of the shrewdest GM's in the game and his scouting staff and assistants and front office personnel - yeah, even the intern who gets everyone coffee! - have proven themselves to be just that much smarter than the rest of MLB. See 2003, 2004, 2005 and even the "fire sale"-d team of 2006. Each year the Marlins have been in serious contention for the postseason.

Whew. Ok, let's continue.

So, why is this latest move any different?

Well, looking at the spring numbers for Julio, there is reason to cringe. But since when have spring training numbers EVER serve as an accurate barometer of regular season success? Huh, Abe Nunez?

I must confess - I was on board for the Abraham "Five Tool" Nunez movement for our CF of the future. You bet. Hey, I can't always be right, right?

Then again, I wasn't thrilled at reports of us looking at Julio either as our stop-gap measure for closer. Yet, I grew into it.

So, why and how did I come to this conclusion, that Jorge Julio is going to be the answer for the Marlins closing woes this year? Simple - In Larry Beinfest I trust.

There seems to be a template here in place, a formula that is almost can't fail. For the Marlins closer candidate, it goes like this:

  1. Must have expiring/one year deal
  2. Must be undervalued
  3. Must have prior experience

If Beinfest can find a guy that matches those criteria, he has found himself a match and almost without fail, a gem. Need proof?
  • 2003 Ugueth Urbina
  • 2004 Armando Benitez
  • 2005 Todd Jones
  • 2006 Joe Borowski
And now, for 2007, Jorge Julio.

You see, all the names listed here fit into this formula - all have criterium 1 in place, all have been undervalued at the time they were acquired (and another way to cite their value is who/what it took to acquire them), and they obviously all had experience.

What is amazing to me is that the Marlins seem to be able to keep finding these guys. Once they land here in Miami, they all of a sudden turn to gold and go on to get big deals elsewhere. Then Beinfest reloads.

So, one reason to have hope with Julio is that he fits into this formula, this template that Beinfest seems to like in assessing who is available. The other thing to consider is that those three criteria work.
  1. An expiring or one year deal is a "walk year". Anyone notice how mysteriously players are more motivated going into their free agency year and tend to have a "career year"? Well, it is all in order to get that big, fat paycheck - right Mr. Beltran? Jorge is in the final year of his deal - and will be looking to impress as he wants to end up with at least 200 saves - and he is only at 99 right now.
  2. Julio was very much undervalued. The DBacks are committed to Jose Valverde as their closer and seem to not have a place for Julio - which is why the DBacks were shopping him. Trading him for Petit may seem costly, but the Marlins are so stacked in starting pitching talent that they don't notice. Sometimes, they lose guys on those long bus rides in the minors and don't even notice for weeks.
  3. Julio was the closer for the Orioles, which would argue against much "experience" but he does have 99 saves over the course of his career (in 124 save opportunities, which puts him at .798 % - for comparison, Mariano Rivera has a .898 %) and has topped over 20 three times in his 6 year career.
In other words, if Beinfest likes him, and it isn't costing us too much in the acquisition cost or even having him on payroll ($2.1M), I don't really see the downside.

The other positive is that this solidifies the bullpen and the roles of the young guys in there. It shortens the game by forcing us to really find consistency for innings 7 and 8 as well - and with the talent the Marlins have added, they should be able to meet this objective much more quickly and more often than they did last season.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Fan Favorite Wood Makes Roster

Jason Wood, best known for his game winning pinch hit single in the final game against Philly, is now a member of the parent club's roster at the young age of 37. 'Bout time because this guy has hung with it and shown that he can flat-out hit.

Right-Said-Fredi, as I like to call him (not to his face, obviously!), really likes Wood's compact swing and also visualizes the minor league vet as a pinch hitting option off the bench. Hitting .415 will get you to turn some heads.

Another journeyman, Lee Gardner, has also earned his way onto the opening day roster while posting a flawless 13.1 IP, with no earned runs and a 2-0 record.

Also being classified as "shocking" news, the Marlins have announced that de Aza will be their opening day centerfielder. The 22 year old will get a chance to start his big league career as a rookie this season, but let's hope he is not another Scott Pose and the comparisons to Juan Pierre are warranted. He looked very sharp this spring hitting .364, the second highest average on the team (behind Wood), and only getting K'd 5 times in 44 ABs while scoring 8 runs, stealing 4 bases (out of 6) and amassing an OBP of .383. He was easily the best looking CFer in camp for the Marlins with the most upside.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Marlins Update 3.23.07

The Marlins defeated the Cards yesterday 2-1. The biggest news being LaRussa's arrest the night before and his subsequent apology. That aside, the Marlins have some promising developments coming out of that win.

Dontrelle Willis is going to be the Opening Day starter and he showed why going 6.2 innings of shutout baseball against the World Champs. He struck out 5, allowed 3 hits and 2 BBs. Not a bad way to get tuned up for the coming season.

Also, de Aza continues to surprise. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI while setting the table for the Marlins lineup. He is batting .387 on the year.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Garcia Down; Petit In as 5th Starter?

Jose Garcia, trying to grab the 5th spot in the rotation with the injury to Josh Johnson, has become injured himself. His right elbow, his throwing arm, has swollen and he is slated for some light throwing on Monday.

He isn't sure he will make it through that.

MRI tests have revealed no structural damage, just some inflammation. That isn't expected to keep Garcia out too long, but it may already be too late. Yusmeiro Petit may have already taken the spot.

Petit has 8 Ks and 0 BBs through 7.2 innings pitched. He has given up 12 hits and 6 ERs, but his ability to locate his pitches and do it consistently may be what seperates him from the rest of the Marlin candidates.

That and just being healthy.

Garcia is looking to lose some time, while Mitre is just getting back - Sergio Mitre had a pretty solid performance today against the Mets in Port Saint Lucie, striking out 2 in 2.1 innings while walking 1 and allowing 1 hit.

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